The acceptance rate is sliding.
For years the counter offer was the employer's emergency brake. A valued person resigns, the company matches or beats the new salary, the person stays. It worked often enough to be a habit. In our data through 2026 that habit is failing more than it succeeds. Counter offers are being accepted at noticeably lower rates than even a year or two ago, and a growing share of those who do accept have moved on within months anyway.
That second point matters as much as the first. A counter offer that buys six months is not a save. It is a delay that has cost you a salary uplift and left a flight risk sitting in a critical role. The market has changed underneath the tactic.
Money was never the whole story.
When we debrief candidates who resigned, pay is rarely the first reason and almost never the only one. People leave energy and infrastructure roles for a cluster of reasons that money cannot touch:
- Workload and burnout. A bigger number does not fix a team running too hot for too long. The exhaustion stays after the pay rise lands.
- Project narrative. Specialists want to work on assets that matter, that will reach delivery, that build their story. A stalling or uncertain project pushes good people out regardless of pay.
- Culture and leadership. The relationship with the manager is the single most common driver we hear. A counter offer signals that recognition only came once they threatened to leave.
A purely financial counter answers a question the candidate was not really asking. It can even backfire, confirming that the value was always there and was only offered under pressure.
The candidate has already left, mentally.
By the time someone resigns, they have usually run a long internal process. They explored the market, sat the interviews, pictured the new role, and made peace with leaving. The resignation is the end of that journey, not the start of a negotiation. A counter offer asks them to unwind weeks of decision making in a single emotional conversation.
In a tight specialist market, the other side is also pushing hard. The new employer has invested in the search, the candidate is excited about the project, and a strong onboarding plan is already in motion. Against that momentum, a reactive match from the current employer rarely wins. The pull of a fresh, well sold opportunity beats the inertia of staying once the decision is genuinely made.
Stop relying on the save. Close better earlier.
The lesson is not to counter harder. It is to make the counter unnecessary. The employers who keep their people are doing the work long before a resignation lands. Our advice to hiring managers:
- Pay and recognise people before they look. If your market rates are out by the time someone resigns, you have left it too late. Benchmark regularly and act on it.
- Fix the real drivers. Manage workload, tell a credible project story, and develop your managers. These hold people. A late pay rise does not.
- Close offers fast and warmly when you are hiring. The same forces that defeat counter offers help you win candidates. Move quickly, sell the project, and remove friction from the final mile.
If you are losing good people to counter offers that should never have been needed, or losing candidates because your process drags, we can help you tighten both ends. Talk to us about closing and retention.